The Global State of H1N1 (the Swine Flu )
Hasan A. Yahya, Ph.Ds
This article argue that H1N1 in modern age, like SARS
in the 1930s, need to be globally managed far from narrow national political
policy making. Therefore, This analysis will not deal
with symptoms or methods of prevention. Apart from killing at least 2,185
people worldwide, the H1N1 virus – popularly known as the Swine Flu – has sown
great confusion and more than normal uncertainty about the future. It was
declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a pandemic, which simply
means a global threat.
To report regional comparative analysis, there are
certain notes about data collected or reported. Understanding what data means
among researchers is important to understand the situation of the H1N1 disease.
Because it is limited to certain methods of reporting (
official or non-official), daily or weekly, rates or actual
numbers, regional or global, Therefore,
worldwide tally of deaths can be seen as an indicator for comparative analysis
according to these methods of reporting. However, According to the regional
factor, we may compare Arab and Muslim countries, or the Mediterranean Region
(MR) the rate and numbers of death cases, differ from other nations in the West
or South America regions. While the
highest number of case in Egypt was in June 2009, 185, more than double of that
number was reported in Argentina (453 death cases). The number of deaths in the
United States was 408. Australia 75, United kingdom
33. Brazil 103.
The above data shows that Arab and Muslim countries as
developing countries are more immune than advanced countries such as the United
States as an example (408 deaths). While no death or very small number of death
reported in the Arab and Muslim countries. [Egypt 1,Indonesia
4, Iraq 1,Lebanon 1, Malaysia 8,Qatar 1, and Saudi Arabia 4]. For some Muslim
scholars, they claim, that these numbers give confirmation that Arab and Muslim
countries, who profess Islamic rules concerning swine prohibition have more
ability to immune themselves than other countries [Especially Christian
countries which legally use productions of swine ). But lack of research in
this area of correlation between religion and H1N1 disease, reduces the value
of such claim.
H1N1 and SARS: The H1N1 or the Swine Flu was compared
to other disease known as SARS, were quarantine measures heavily used in the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak, were instituted by countries such as China
in handling the threat of H1N1 as if they were a silver bullet for all
infectious diseases. Quarantine (which is derived from the Italian “quarantina”
or about forty in recognition of the number days of isolation imposed by the
City of Venice during the Bubonic Plague of the 14th century) proved futile to
stop the spread of the 1918 Spanish Flu even when vigorously enforced in
military units. The same holds true in the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic. By June 18
(the date of the most recent epidemiological data available), only 23 confirmed
cases in China were identified through involuntary quarantine. SARS has been spreading through populations in Asia and elsewhere. For
scientists, the epidemiology is difficult, in part because of the variable
response by individuals, institutions, and governments to a new and dangerous disease.
Nonetheless, a coherent picture of the epidemic is beginning to emerge.
Epidemiologists look for contemplating a list of basic questions about how and
why the disease caused by this coronavirus SARS. By piecing together
preliminary data on the course of infection, and by making use of accumulating
case notifications, two studies reported by Lipsitch et al. and Riley et
al. in Science Express (May 2003) give the first quantitative
assessment of the epidemic potential of SARS. Their main message was that this
new coronavirus is sufficiently transmissible to cause a very large epidemic if
unchecked, but not so contagious as to be uncontrollable with good, basic
public health measures. Both groups of researchers make use of dynamic
mathematical models in which individuals progress through mutually exclusive
classes containing susceptible, exposed (latent), infectious, and recovered
(immune) individuals.
Historically In September 1988, a previously healthy 32-year-old
pregnant woman was hospitalized for pneumonia and died 8 days later. A swine
H1N1 flu virus was detected. Four days before getting sick, the patient visited
a county fair swine exhibition where there was widespread influenza-like
illness among the swine. In follow-up studies, 76% of swine exhibitors tested
had antibody evidence of swine flu infection but no serious illnesses were
detected among this group. Additional studies suggest that one to three health
care personnel who had contact with the patient developed mild influenza-like
illnesses with antibody evidence of swine flu infection. The H1N1 swine viruses have been
known to circulate among pig populations since at least 1930, H3N2 influenza
viruses did not begin circulating among US pigs about seventy years later
(until 1998). The H3N2 viruses initially were introduced into the pig
population from humans. The current swine flu H3N2 viruses are closely related
to human H3N2 viruses.
Compared with SARS, , it is
precisely the mildness of the H1N1 virus that poses one of the biggest challenges
to global pandemic planning and control. Due to the high fatality rate of H5N1
– once considered the most likely candidate for the next flu pandemic, the WHO
pandemic alert system focuses on the geographic spread of the pandemic flu. A
full-fledged pandemic (“Phase 6”) can be announced provided there is evidence
of sustained human-to-human transmission in two
separate parts of the planet simultaneously. The rapid spread of a low virulent
H1N1 (instead of a highly lethal H5N1) in 2009 thus lays bare the loophole of
the WHO pandemic alert system. Within one week, the WHO alert level was raised
to Phase 5, suggesting a pandemic was “imminent.” By May 8, the criteria for
moving to the highest alert level had already been met, although the
organization did not announce a full-blown pandemic until June 11, 2009.
In conclusion: H1N1 is similar to SARS. It is not of local concern in one nation’s
boarders, it is in fact, a global concern, or it should be. This statement implies cooperation of nations
and understanding for the pandemic H1N1, where every human being in this world
is concerned, to be protected. This means, that public health threats should be
further compromised as health is transformed from a humanitarian technical “low
politics” issue to one that features prominently on the (pure) political
agenda. In this case, ability of science is limited and directed to serve
national concern rather than global one. Unless policy makers update their
thinking about the threats of H1N1 disease and the strategies aimed at their
solution in a globalized world. (1115 words) www.dryahyatv.com
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image by corkmedia, from http://animotivation.blogspot.com/2009/06/know-origin-of-an1h1.html
Two videos on H1N1 Conspiracy: What’s going on, America?
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